Hypothesis: The Effect of New Drug Approvals on HIV Mortality in the Us, 1987-1998

Posted: 21 Jul 2003

See all articles by Frank R. Lichtenberg

Frank R. Lichtenberg

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Abstract

After increasing steadily from 1987 to 1995, the number of U.S. deaths caused by HIV declined sharply from 1995 to 1998. We analyse aggregate data to consider the hypothesis that this decline was due to a rapid increase in the number of drugs available to treat HIV. The evidence suggests that new drugs played a key role in the post-1995 decline in HIV mortality. The annual number of HIV deaths is estimated to have been reduced by over 6000, on average, by an additional HIV drug approval. The social return to HIV drug innovation appears to be extremely large.

Keywords: Health, HIV, mortality, new drug approvals

JEL Classification: I10, I31

Suggested Citation

Lichtenberg, Frank R., Hypothesis: The Effect of New Drug Approvals on HIV Mortality in the Us, 1987-1998. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=418542

Frank R. Lichtenberg (Contact Author)

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics ( email )

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