Credit Risk Contagion in German Auto Loans

42 Pages Posted: 12 Aug 2022 Last revised: 5 Jul 2023

See all articles by Arved Fenner

Arved Fenner

University of Münster

Steffen Vollmar

University of Münster

Date Written: November 28, 2022


We investigate default clusters and reveal credit contagion risk in a data set containing
over four million German auto loans. We demonstrate that auto loan defaults cannot be
attributed to loan-, borrower-, and asset-specific variables and macroeconomic effects alone.
Therefore, we explicitly model contagion effects and reveal that the default of one auto loan
can lead to the defaults of other auto loans. Our results are highly relevant for banks’ risk
management of auto loan portfolios, rating agencies, and regulators because they indicate
that contagion effects should be considered when assessing credit risk.

Keywords: Credit Contagion, Auto Loans, Default Clustering, Correlated Default Risk

JEL Classification: G11, G21, G23

Suggested Citation

Fenner, Arved and Vollmar, Steffen, Credit Risk Contagion in German Auto Loans (November 28, 2022). Available at SSRN: or

Arved Fenner

University of Münster ( email )

Universitätsstraße 14-16
Münster, 48143

Steffen Vollmar (Contact Author)

University of Münster ( email )

Schlossplatz 2
Muenster, D-48149

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