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Monitoring and Simulation of Land-Use Changes in the Bosomtwe District of Ghana Based on CA-Markov Model

28 Pages Posted: 23 Aug 2022 Publication Status: Preprint

See all articles by Queenscilla Adu-Gyamfi

Queenscilla Adu-Gyamfi

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Jonathan A. Quaye-Ballard

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Emmanuel Gikunoo

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Peter Damoah-Afari

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology

Anthony Arko-Adjei

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Albert Adu-Gyamfi

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Kwame Obeng

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Nat Owusu-Prempeh

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Abstract

Bosomtwe District is one of the second-level administrative subdivisions of Ghana, located in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The district serves as a means of livelihood to millions of people in areas of agriculture, employment, and tourism. The resource base in the district has been declining and information with regards to the decline is scanty, which makes it difficult for stakeholders to preserve and monitor the resource base. Geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques provide effective tools in the monitoring and studying of land-use /land cover change over space and time. The study aimed to predict future land-use change by assessing the current trend between 1986 and 2020.  The classes in the district were categorized as built-up/bare land, water, cropland, grassland, shrubs, and forest. A Random Forest classification algorithm was used for the classification. Within the study period, built-up/bare land, cropland, and forest increased by 6.0%, 6.0%, and 16.8% whereas grassland, shrub, and water decreased by 2.4%, 3.4%, and 1.4% respectively. Using Markov Chain and Cellular Automata, land use was predicted for 2030 and 2040. The result revealed that forest, built-up/bare land, water, and cropland are likely to increase by 3.0%, 0.5%, 1.0%, and 0.4% while grassland and shrubs will decrease by 2.4% and 2.4% respectively by 2030. By 2040, forest, built-up/bare land, water is expected to increase by 1.3%, 1,7% and 1.0% whereas grassland and cropland will decrease by 2.1% and 6.8% respectively. From the study, the projected loss of agricultural land in the study area is a threat to food security. Measures must be put in place to prevent these losses. Land-use prediction is therefore required to assist policymakers to make efficient measures for future resource sustainability.

Keywords: Land-use/land cover, Land-use prediction, GIS, Resource sustainability, Markov chain, Cellular automata, remote sensing

Suggested Citation

Adu-Gyamfi, Queenscilla and Quaye-Ballard, Jonathan A. and Gikunoo, Emmanuel and Damoah-Afari, Peter and Arko-Adjei, Anthony and Adu-Gyamfi, Albert and Obeng, Kwame and Owusu-Prempeh, Nat, Monitoring and Simulation of Land-Use Changes in the Bosomtwe District of Ghana Based on CA-Markov Model. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4197672 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4197672

Queenscilla Adu-Gyamfi (Contact Author)

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology ( email )

Department of Biochemistry and Biotiotechnology
KNUST
Kumasi, 233
Ghana

Jonathan A. Quaye-Ballard

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology ( email )

Department of Biochemistry and Biotiotechnology
KNUST
Kumasi, 233
Ghana

Emmanuel Gikunoo

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology ( email )

Department of Biochemistry and Biotiotechnology
KNUST
Kumasi, 233
Ghana

Peter Damoah-Afari

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology ( email )

Anthony Arko-Adjei

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology ( email )

Department of Biochemistry and Biotiotechnology
KNUST
Kumasi, 233
Ghana

Albert Adu-Gyamfi

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology ( email )

Department of Biochemistry and Biotiotechnology
KNUST
Kumasi, 233
Ghana

Kwame Obeng

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology ( email )

Department of Biochemistry and Biotiotechnology
KNUST
Kumasi, 233
Ghana

Nat Owusu-Prempeh

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology ( email )

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