On the Importance of Independent Evidence: A Reply to Graham et al.

3 Pages Posted: 5 Oct 2022

See all articles by Anthony Fowler

Anthony Fowler

University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy

B. Pablo Montagnes

Emory University - Department of Political Science

Date Written: August 29, 2022

Abstract

Do college football games influence U.S. elections? Healy, Malhotra, and Mo (2010) found that college football outcomes are correlated with election results. Fowler and Montagnes (2015) found that the estimated effects of college football games do not vary in the ways we would theoretically expect if the effect were genuine and that NFL games have no effect, suggesting that the original result was likely a chance false positive. Graham et al. (2022a) reevaluated the effect of college football games on elections by adding new data. Although the estimates weakened when a small amount of new data was added, they concluded that the evidence mostly supports the original finding. Fowler and Montagnes (2022) responded with simulations showing that the evidence in Graham et al. (2022a) is statistically consistent with the possibility that the original result was a chance false positive and statistically inconsistent with the possibility of a genuine result of the magnitude reported in the original paper. Graham et al. (2022b) have written a reply to Fowler Montagnes (2022), and as ridiculous as this all sounds, this is our reply to that reply.

Keywords: voter rationality, irrelevant events, elections

Suggested Citation

Fowler, Anthony and Montagnes, B. Pablo, On the Importance of Independent Evidence: A Reply to Graham et al. (August 29, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4204045 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4204045

Anthony Fowler (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

B. Pablo Montagnes

Emory University - Department of Political Science ( email )

Atlanta, GA 30322
United States

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