COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for Young Adults: A Risk-Benefit Assessment and Five Ethical Arguments against Mandates at Universities

50 Pages Posted: 12 Sep 2022

See all articles by Kevin Bardosh

Kevin Bardosh

University of Washington; University of Edinburgh - Edinburgh Medical School

Allison Krug

Artemis Biomedical Communications LLC

Euzebiusz Jamrozik

University of Oxford

Trudo Lemmens

University of Toronto - Faculty of Law

Salmaan Keshavjee

Harvard University - Harvard Medical School

Vinay Prasad

University of California, San Francisco (UCSF)

Martin A. Makary

Johns Hopkins University - Department of Surgery

Stefan Baral

John Hopkins University

Tracy Beth Høeg

Florida Department of Health; Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital

Date Written: August 31, 2022

Abstract

Students at North American universities risk disenrollment due to third dose COVID-19 vaccine mandates. We present a risk-benefit assessment of boosters in this age group and provide five ethical arguments against mandates. We estimate that 22,000 - 30,000 previously uninfected adults aged 18-29 must be boosted with an mRNA vaccine to prevent one COVID-19 hospitalisation. Using CDC and sponsor-reported adverse event data, we find that booster mandates may cause a net expected harm: per COVID-19 hospitalisation prevented in previously uninfected young adults, we anticipate 18 to 98 serious adverse events, including 1.7 to 3.0 booster-associated myocarditis cases in males, and 1,373 to 3,234 cases of grade ≥3 reactogenicity which interferes with daily activities. Given the high prevalence of post-infection immunity, this risk-benefit profile is even less favourable. University booster mandates are unethical because: 1) no formal risk-benefit assessment exists for this age group; 2) vaccine mandates may result in a net expected harm to individual young people; 3) mandates are not proportionate: expected harms are not outweighed by public health benefits given the modest and transient effectiveness of vaccines against transmission; 4) US mandates violate the reciprocity principle because rare serious vaccine-related harms will not be reliably compensated due to gaps in current vaccine injury schemes; and 5) mandates create wider social harms. We consider counter-arguments such as a desire for socialisation and safety and show that such arguments lack scientific and/or ethical support. Finally, we discuss the relevance of our analysis for current 2-dose CCOVIDovid-19 vaccine mandates in North America.

Note: Funding: This paper was partially supported by a Wellcome Trust Society and Ethics fellowship awarded to KB (10892/B/15/ZE) and Wellcome Trust grants to EJ (216355, 221719, 203132).
Competing Interest Statement: We do not have any competing interests to declare.

Keywords: COVID-19 vaccines, mandates, ethics, young adults, risk-benefit analysis

Suggested Citation

Bardosh, Kevin and Krug, Allison and Jamrozik, Euzebiusz and Lemmens, Trudo and Keshavjee, Salmaan and Prasad, Vinay and Makary, Martin A. and Baral, Stefan and Høeg, Tracy Beth, COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for Young Adults: A Risk-Benefit Assessment and Five Ethical Arguments against Mandates at Universities (August 31, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4206070 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4206070

Kevin Bardosh (Contact Author)

University of Washington ( email )

Seattle, WA 98195
United States

University of Edinburgh - Edinburgh Medical School ( email )

Edinburgh
United Kingdom

Allison Krug

Artemis Biomedical Communications LLC ( email )

4848 Broad Street
VIRGINIA BEACH, VA 23462
United States
7572549161 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.abcmedicalwriting.com

Euzebiusz Jamrozik

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Trudo Lemmens

University of Toronto - Faculty of Law ( email )

78 and 84 Queen's Park
Toronto, Ontario M5S 2C5
Canada

Salmaan Keshavjee

Harvard University - Harvard Medical School ( email )

Vinay Prasad

University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) ( email )

Third Avenue and Parnassus
San Francisco, CA 94143
United States

Martin A. Makary

Johns Hopkins University - Department of Surgery ( email )

Baltimore, MD
United States

Stefan Baral

John Hopkins University ( email )

Baltimore, MD
United States

Tracy Beth Høeg

Florida Department of Health ( email )

1217 N Pearl Street
Jacksonville, FL 32202
United States

Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital ( email )

Grass Valley, CA
United States

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