Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run

110 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2022 Last revised: 8 Jun 2023

See all articles by Valentin Lang

Valentin Lang

University of Mannheim

Stephan A. Schneider

ETH Zurich - KOF Swiss Economic Institute ; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 8, 2023

Abstract

We study the long-term effects of immigration on anti-immigrant sentiment and voting for nationalist parties. Drawing on a natural experiment in post-war Germany where the Allied occupation led to a discontinuous and quasi-exogenous distribution of forced migrants in one region, we examine how a large migrant inflow shapes local voting outcomes and electoral reactions to subsequent immigration between 1949 and 2021. Applying a spatial regression discontinuity design and combining historical migration records with panel data at the municipality level, our results reveal a weaker nationalist backlash against present-day immigration where more migrants settled in the late 1940s. To study the mechanisms, we conduct a geocoded survey with experimental elements and open-ended questions in the study region and find that both family history and local collective memory of immigrant integration contribute to explaining these findings.

Keywords: Migration, Nationalism, Persistence, Voting Behavior

JEL Classification: D72, O15

Suggested Citation

Lang, Valentin and Schneider, Stephan A., Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run (June 8, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4212484 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4212484

Valentin Lang

University of Mannheim ( email )

Universitaetsbibliothek Mannheim
Zeitschriftenabteilung
Mannheim, 68131
Germany

Stephan A. Schneider (Contact Author)

ETH Zurich - KOF Swiss Economic Institute ( email )

Switzerland

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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