Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run

Abstract

This study identifies how local immigration experiences shape political reactions to immigration through economic learning. We leverage a spatially discontinuous resettlement of forced migrants in post-war Germany, using municipal panel data from 1925-2021, and combine this with a geocoded survey experiment. Results from both the randomized and natural experiments consistently show that nationalist backlashes against contemporary immigration are substantially weaker in regions that were historically exposed to immigrants. Local exposure to immigrant integration leads natives to positively update their beliefs about the economic effects of immigration, thereby reducing nationalism in the long run.

Keywords: Migration, Nationalism, Persistence, Voting Behavior

JEL Classification: D72, O15