The Relationship Between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: How to Dance in 'Shackles'? - Evidence from Time Series of Zhejiang and Anhui Provinces in China

24 Pages Posted: 6 Dec 2022

See all articles by Feiyang He

Feiyang He

Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry university

Yu Huan

Duke Kunshan University - Environmental Research Center

YiRui Hu

Huazhong university of science and technology

Zhijie Zhou

Duke Kunshan University

Date Written: September 5, 2022

Abstract

Chinese Abstract: 传统的环境库茨涅兹曲线(EKC)假说提出污染排放—经济增长关系为倒“U”型曲线,但基于检验模型设置问题,经济增长关系为传统倒U型曲线的结论在实际案例研究中受到挑战,充分考虑中国环境政策干预度大,本文基于1997—2019年浙江安徽两省面板数据做EKC检验,拟合浙江、安徽两省碳排放与经济增长EKC,分析EKC曲线类型与拐点。同时,基于Tapio脱钩模型对碳排放与经济增长进行脱钩分析,应用LDMI因素分解法分析碳排放的驱动因素。研究结果表明:从长期拟合结果看,浙江安徽两省碳排放与经济增长EKC不符合传统倒“U”型曲线,浙江为正“N”型EKC,经历两次拐点,拐点年份约为2007年和2014年,对应人均GDP为 36766和73388元,安徽省为微弱的倒N型EKC曲线,经历两次拐点,拐点年份约为1998年和2013年,人均GDP为 4452元和32733元;从短期作用看,浙江、安徽两省脱钩状态主要为在增长弱脱钩、扩张负数脱钩、强脱钩三种状态之间转变,浙江为扩张负脱钩向强脱钩与弱脱钩方向转变,安徽由强脱钩向增长弱脱钩转变,碳排放与经济增长二者关系总体较为协调并继续优化;浙江、安徽两省碳排放为主导驱动因素以经济增长效应为主,浙江省人口规模效应突出,能源强度效应总体下降,两省能源结构效应方向相反。推进省域碳排放与经济增长二者关系协调发展,要加强省域统筹与县市联控,加快推动生态固碳、清洁能源、碳排放市场等重点领域建设,推进省域可持续发展。

Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese.

Keywords: 碳排放;经济增长;环境库茨涅兹曲线(EKC);脱钩;LMDI因素分解法

Suggested Citation

He, Feiyang and Huan, Yu and Hu, YiRui and Zhou, Zhijie, The Relationship Between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: How to Dance in 'Shackles'? - Evidence from Time Series of Zhejiang and Anhui Provinces in China (September 5, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4214994

Feiyang He (Contact Author)

Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry university ( email )

School of Law and humanity
Hangzhou, 311300
China
19157737928 (Phone)

Yu Huan

Duke Kunshan University - Environmental Research Center ( email )

Kunshan
China

YiRui Hu

Huazhong university of science and technology ( email )

School of Architecture and Urban Planning
sherlyhu1023@163.com
Wuhan
China

Zhijie Zhou

Duke Kunshan University ( email )

No. 8 Duke Avenue
Kunshan, Jiangsu 215316
China

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