Catastrophic Risk, Uncertainty, and Agency Analysis

28 Pages Posted: 14 Sep 2022 Last revised: 8 Nov 2022

Date Written: September 1, 2022


I propose three changes to the governance of federal policymaking: (1) an amendment to Circular A-4 that provides agencies with guidance on evaluating policies implicating catastrophic and existential risks, (2) principles for the assessment and mitigation of those risks, and (3) proposed language to be included in an executive order requiring agencies to report on such risks.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, existential risk

JEL Classification: K00

Suggested Citation

Phillips-Robins, Alasdair, Catastrophic Risk, Uncertainty, and Agency Analysis (September 1, 2022). LPP Working Paper No. 1-2022, Available at SSRN: or

Alasdair Phillips-Robins (Contact Author)

Yale University, Law School ( email )

127 Wall Street
New Haven, CT 06511
United States

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