The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes

23 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2007

See all articles by Karl E. Case

Karl E. Case

Deceased

Robert J. Shiller

Yale University - Cowles Foundation; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Yale University - International Center for Finance

Date Written: February 1988

Abstract

Tests of weak-form efficiency of the market for single family homes are performed using data on repeat sales prices of 39,210 individual homes, each for two sales dates. Tests were done for Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco/Oakland for 1970-86. While evidence for seasonality in real housing prices is weak, we do find some evidence of inertia in housing prices. A city-wide real log price index change in a given year tends to be followed by a city-wide real log price index change in the same direction (and between a quarter to a half as large in magnitude) in the subsequent year. However, the inertia cannot account for much of the variation in individual housing real price changes. There is so much noise in individual housing prices relative to city-wide price index changes that the R[squared] in forecasting regressions for annual real price change in individual homes is never more than .04.

Suggested Citation

Case, Karl E. and Shiller, Robert J., The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes (February 1988). NBER Working Paper No. w2506. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=421766

Karl E. Case

Deceased

Robert J. Shiller (Contact Author)

Yale University - Cowles Foundation ( email )

Box 208281
New Haven, CT 06520-8281
United States
203-432-3708 (Phone)
203-432-6167 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
203-432-3708 (Phone)

Yale University - International Center for Finance ( email )

Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520
United States
203-432-3708 (Phone)
203-432-6167 (Fax)

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