Well-to-Wheels Scenarios for 2050 Carbon-Neutral Road Transport in the EU

31 Pages Posted: 14 Sep 2022

See all articles by Jette Krause

Jette Krause

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Marta Yugo

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Zissis Samaras

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

Simon Edwards

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Georgios Fontaras

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Roland Dauphin

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Peter Prenninger

AVL List GmbH

Stephan Neugebauer

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

The present study explores net carbon-neutral road transport options in the EU27 in 2050 from a well-to-wheel (WtW) perspective. To this aim, three scenarios were developed regarding the evolution of the road-vehicle fleet composition, the degree of electrification of powertrains, and technical measures such as vehicle efficiency improvements, transport flow, and transport volumes. The fleet scenarios are further combined with four scenarios deploying different mixes of alternative fuels in 2050, including electricity, e-fuels, liquid/gaseous advanced biofuels and remaining fossil fuel components. Two different electricity production pathways are considered, as well. The Joint Research Centre's DIONE model was used for the scenario calculations. From a tank-to-wheel (TtW) perspective, each scenario reduces energy consumption, mainly due to powertrain electrification, with EU27 TtW road vehicle energy consumption in 2050 ranging from roughly 650 to 1650 TWh, which is 20% to 53% of that of 2019. Well-to-tank (WtT) energy consumption is around 20% of TtW energy, ranging around 110-160TWh depending on the fuel scenario, for the most strongly electrified fleet scenario with optimistic assumptions on measures to improve vehicle efficiency, transport flow and transport volumes and renewable electricity production. If a moderately electrified fleet is propelled with e-fuels, even when assuming fully renewable electricity and optimistic measures, the WtT energy increases to 130% of the TtW energy, or 1300 TWh (or 2150 TWh with pessimistic measures). The results show that fleet electrification is the strongest lever for WtW transport energy consumption reduction among the options considered. Other efficiency measures contribute significantly to energy savings, but their benefit decreases with increasing fleet electrification. The production pathways of fuels considered make a substantial difference for WtW fleet energy requirement if the fleet is moderately electrified, in which case e-fuels require significant amounts of additional renewable electricity. But fuel production pathways become irrelevant from an energetic point of view under very ambitious electrification scenarios as their volumes become marginal.

Keywords: Road transport, well to wheel, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, fuels, electrification

Suggested Citation

Krause, Jette and Yugo, Marta and Samaras, Zissis and Edwards, Simon and Fontaras, Georgios and Dauphin, Roland and Prenninger, Peter and Neugebauer, Stephan, Well-to-Wheels Scenarios for 2050 Carbon-Neutral Road Transport in the EU. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4218436 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4218436

Jette Krause (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Marta Yugo

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Zissis Samaras

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki ( email )

Thessaloniki
Greece

Simon Edwards

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Georgios Fontaras

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Roland Dauphin

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Peter Prenninger

AVL List GmbH ( email )

Graz
Austria

Stephan Neugebauer

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

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