Well-to-Wheels Scenarios for 2050 Carbon-Neutral Road Transport in the EU

Abstract

The present study explores net carbon-neutral road transport options in the EU27 in 2050 from a well-to-wheel (WtW) perspective. To this aim, three scenarios were developed regarding the evolution of the road-vehicle fleet composition, the degree of electrification of powertrains, and technical measures such as vehicle efficiency improvements, transport flow, and transport volumes. The fleet scenarios are further combined with four scenarios deploying different mixes of alternative fuels in 2050, including electricity, e-fuels, liquid/gaseous advanced biofuels and remaining fossil fuel components. Two different electricity production pathways are considered, as well. The Joint Research Centre's DIONE model was used for the scenario calculations. From a tank-to-wheel (TtW) perspective, each scenario reduces energy consumption, mainly due to powertrain electrification, with EU27 TtW road vehicle energy consumption in 2050 ranging from roughly 650 to 1650 TWh, which is 20% to 53% of that of 2019. Well-to-tank (WtT) energy consumption is around 20% of TtW energy, ranging around 110-160TWh depending on the fuel scenario, for the most strongly electrified fleet scenario with optimistic assumptions on measures to improve vehicle efficiency, transport flow and transport volumes and renewable electricity production. If a moderately electrified fleet is propelled with e-fuels, even when assuming fully renewable electricity and optimistic measures, the WtT energy increases to 130% of the TtW energy, or 1300 TWh (or 2150 TWh with pessimistic measures). The results show that fleet electrification is the strongest lever for WtW transport energy consumption reduction among the options considered. Other efficiency measures contribute significantly to energy savings, but their benefit decreases with increasing fleet electrification. The production pathways of fuels considered make a substantial difference for WtW fleet energy requirement if the fleet is moderately electrified, in which case e-fuels require significant amounts of additional renewable electricity. But fuel production pathways become irrelevant from an energetic point of view under very ambitious electrification scenarios as their volumes become marginal.

Keywords: Road transport, well to wheel, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, fuels, electrification