Close But No Cigar: Does Winning the Game Moderate or Amplify Failing to Cover the Spread in Future NFL Games

Applied Economics Letters. Forthcoming

9 Pages Posted: 11 Oct 2022 Last revised: 1 Feb 2023

Date Written: January 31, 2023

Abstract

In this paper, I examine the joint role of the previous game’s outcome with and without the spread on wagers’ preferences and outcomes in the NFL gambling market. The results show that gamblers are more likely to wager on the home team if they covered the spread in their previous game, while they are less likely to bet on the home team if the visiting team won their last game (not considering the spread). Further results show that teams are more likely to cover the spread if they covered the spread but lost their previous game. Profitable betting strategies are then put forward based on this information.

Keywords: Financial Markets, Gambling, Market Efficiency, Momentum, Sports Betting

JEL Classification: G1, G4, L83

Suggested Citation

Shank, Corey, Close But No Cigar: Does Winning the Game Moderate or Amplify Failing to Cover the Spread in Future NFL Games (January 31, 2023). Applied Economics Letters. Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4219898 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4219898

Corey Shank (Contact Author)

Miami University ( email )

Oxford, OH 45056
United States

HOME PAGE: http://coreyshank.com

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