Estimating Global Impacts to Agriculture from Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation

112 Pages Posted: 6 Oct 2022

See all articles by Andrew Hultgren

Andrew Hultgren

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign -- Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Tamma Carleton

University of Chicago

Michael Delgado

Rhodium Group

Diana R. Gergel

Rhodium Group

Michael Greenstone

University of Chicago - Department of Economics; Becker Friedman Institute for Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Trevor Houser

Rhodium Group

Solomon Hsiang

University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research

Amir Jina

Harris Public Policy, University of Chicago ; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Robert E. Kopp

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey - New Brunswick/Piscataway

Steven B. Malevich

Rhodium Group

Kelly E. McCusker

Rhodium Group

Terin Mayer

University of Minnesota - Minneapolis

Ishan Nath

University of Chicago - Department of Economics

James Rising

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment

Ashwin Rode

University of Chicago

Jiacan Yuan

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Date Written: September 16, 2022

Abstract

Climate change threatens global food systems, but the extent to which adaptation will reduce losses remains unknown. Here, we empirically estimate the net impact of producer adaptations around the world using longitudinal data on six staple crops spanning 12,658 sub-national units, capturing two-thirds of global crop calories. We project that adaptation and income growth nearly halve global losses at end-of-century, but substantial residual losses remain for all staples except rice. Global damages are dominated by losses to modern-day breadbaskets that currently exhibit limited adaptation due to favorable climates. We estimate global production declines 5.8 x 10^14 kCal annually per 1C rise in global mean surface temperature (4.6% of current production or 130kCal/person/day, per 1C; p<0.001). These results suggest a scale of innovation, cropland expansion and/or additional adaptation that might be necessary to ensure global food security in a changing climate.

Suggested Citation

Hultgren, Andrew and Carleton, Tamma and Delgado, Michael and Gergel, Diana R. and Greenstone, Michael and Houser, Trevor and Hsiang, Solomon and Jina, Amir and Kopp, Robert E. and Malevich, Steven B. and McCusker, Kelly and Mayer, Terin and Nath, Ishan and Rising, James and Rode, Ashwin and Yuan, Jiacan, Estimating Global Impacts to Agriculture from Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation (September 16, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4222020 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4222020

Andrew Hultgren (Contact Author)

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign -- Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

Tamma Carleton

University of Chicago ( email )

1101 East 58th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States
7737026763 (Phone)

Michael Delgado

Rhodium Group ( email )

5 Columbus Circle
New York City, NY
United States

Diana R. Gergel

Rhodium Group

Michael Greenstone

University of Chicago - Department of Economics

1126 East 59th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Becker Friedman Institute for Economics ( email )

Chicago, IL 60637
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Trevor Houser

Rhodium Group ( email )

5 Columbus Circle
New York City, NY
United States

Solomon Hsiang

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

2607 Hearst Avenue
Berkeley, CA 94720-7320
United States

HOME PAGE: http://gspp.berkeley.edu/directories/faculty/solomon-hsiang

National Bureau of Economic Research ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Amir Jina

Harris Public Policy, University of Chicago ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Robert E. Kopp

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey - New Brunswick/Piscataway ( email )

HOME PAGE: http://www.bobkopp.net/

Steven B. Malevich

Rhodium Group

Kelly McCusker

Rhodium Group ( email )

5 Columbus Circle
New York City, NY
United States

Terin Mayer

University of Minnesota - Minneapolis

Ishan Nath

University of Chicago - Department of Economics ( email )

1126 East 59th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

James Rising

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
Great Britain

HOME PAGE: http://existencia.org/pro

Ashwin Rode

University of Chicago ( email )

1101 East 58th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Jiacan Yuan

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences ( email )

Wright-Rieman Laboratories
Busch Campus, 610 Taylor Rd.
Piscataway, NJ 08854-8066
United States

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