The Russia-Ukraine War and the Seeds of a New Liberal Plurilateral Order

Abstract

Since about 2008, the rise of autocracy, the corresponding decline of democracy, and the emergence of “authoritarian international law” has threatened the post-World War II liberal international order. To counter the threat of “authoritarian international law,” we argue that the United States will need to collaborate with other liberal democracies, including those outside Europe and other limited regional groupings, to develop new plurilateral institutions and plurilateral treaties to create a “liberal plurilateral order.” This essay contends that states are currently planting the seeds of such a future liberal plurilateral order in their response to Russian aggression and atrocities in Ukraine. Our analysis demonstrates that liberal democracies behave differently from autocracies in the international arena. We show that there is a strong correlation between the classification of states by regime type and (1) their condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, (2) imposition of sanctions against Russia, and (3) support for accountability processes to investigate and punish war crimes and other atrocities in Ukraine. For example, liberal democracies voted unanimously to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, fewer than half of the UN’s autocratic states voted to condemn Russian aggression. With respect to sanctions, slightly more than half of the world’s liberal democracies have collaborated to impose sanctions in response to Russian aggression. And a worldwide coalition of liberal democracies and hybrid states has emerged to condemn violations of international humanitarian law in Ukraine and support accountability processes. These coalitions transcend regional groupings and may indicate that a new liberal plurilateral order is taking root. Thus, states’ responses to the war in Ukraine reinforce a point that was evident previously: most autocratic states do not support a liberal international order, rooted in a principled commitment to democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Opposition from powerful autocracies, especially China and Russia, makes it increasingly unrealistic to try to maintain a global liberal order. However, state responses to Russian aggression indicate that liberal democracies from every continent are cooperating informally to uphold a plurilateral international order that is consistent with liberal values.

Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, International Order, International Law, Autocracy, International Humanitarian Law

JEL Classification: K33 K42