Short and Long Run Democracy Diffusion

Abstract

Does democracy diffuse across borders? If so, how long does it take? Can diffusion cause path dependence, such that if a region is initially democratic, it becomes increasingly democratic, but if the same region is initially autocratic, it becomes increasingly autocratic? In this research note, I estimate short and long run democratic diffusion from regional neighbors, account for feedback effects to neighbors in future periods, depict the transition path toward the region’s long-run democracy level, and test for path dependence. The results indicate that when neighbor democracy increases by a unit, domestic democracy increases 0.4 units within five years and 0.7-0.8 units in the long run. When I also account for the dynamic feedback effects, I estimate that regions converge to unique long-run democracy levels, which is inconsistent with path dependence. The average region closes 50% of the gap to the long-run level in 14-24 years.

Keywords: democratization, democratic diffusion, error-correction models, autocratic traps