Determinants of Stock Market Correlation. Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Reverse Causality in a Large Panel Setting

38 Pages Posted: 6 Oct 2022

See all articles by António Afonso

António Afonso

ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa; UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics); REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics

Krzysztof Beck

Lazarski University

Karen Jackson

University of Westminster

Date Written: 2022

Abstract

We examine 22 determinants of stock market correlations in a panel setting with 651 country pairs of developed economies over the 2001-2018 period, while accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality. On the one hand, we find, that a number of determinants, well established in the literature, e.g. trade, institutional distance, and exchange rate volatility fail the robustness test. On the other hand, we find strong evidence supporting several others: (1) inertia, with current correlation being the best single predictor of the future stock market correlation (2) positive impact of the market size (3) imperative role of the interconnected financial factors: capital mobility, financial development, and portfolio equity flows. With the expected future growth of economies and their capital markets as well as deepening financial liberalization, this paper brings strong support to the hypothesis of diminishing international diversification potential.  

Keywords: stock market correlations, stock market comovement, financial development, Bayesian model averaging, OECD countries

JEL Classification: G100, G110, G150, F620

Suggested Citation

Afonso, António and Beck, Krzysztof and Jackson, Karen, Determinants of Stock Market Correlation. Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Reverse Causality in a Large Panel Setting (2022). CESifo Working Paper No. 9956, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4235471 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4235471

António Afonso (Contact Author)

ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa ( email )

Rua do Quelhas 6
LISBOA, 1200-781
Portugal

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics) ( email )

Rua Miguel Lupi 20
Lisbon, 1249-078
Portugal
+351-213 925 912 (Phone)
+351-213 971 196 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://uece.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics ( email )

ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa
Rua Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisboa, 1249-078
Portugal

HOME PAGE: http://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

Krzysztof Beck

Lazarski University ( email )

Świeradowska 43 Warszawa
Warsaw, 02-662
Poland

Karen Jackson

University of Westminster ( email )

35 Marylebone Road
London NW1 5LS
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://karen-jackson.com

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