Predicting Recessions

Abstract

This paper predicts recessions using the dispersion of deposit rates offered by banks on insured deposits. An increase in the dispersion of deposit rates can accurately predict recessions over long time horizons at the county, state, and national levels. We find that the growth of deposits, particularly uninsured deposits of riskier banks, slows down at the onset of a downturn, regardless of whether the downturn was preceded by a credit boom. In turn, riskier banks increase their deposit rates to attract more funding to support their balance sheet. The resulting increase in the dispersion of deposit rates predicts an impending economic downturn.