Natural disasters and voting behavior under authoritarian regimes: Evidence from the Brazilian shrimp vote

47 Pages Posted: 20 Oct 2022 Last revised: 27 Mar 2024

See all articles by Diogo Baerlocher

Diogo Baerlocher

University of South Florida

Renata Caldas

University of South Florida

Francisco Cavalcanti

PUC-Rio

Rodrigo Schneider

Skidmore College

Date Written: February 15, 2024

Abstract

This paper explores the connection between natural disasters and protests against autocratic regimes, using data from the 1979-1983 drought in Brazil's semi-arid region. We measure drought severity using deviations from historical water deficit means obtained from meteorological ground stations. Results indicate that adverse weather conditions have a negative impact on protests against the military regime. Additionally, disaster relief, income inequality, and social vulnerability measures do not show significant effects as potential mechanisms. However, we observe heterogeneous effects among areas with different shares of irrigated farmland, suggesting that economic vulnerability may be a driving factor behind the results.

Keywords: Natural Disasters; Drought; Democracy; Authoritarianism; Economic Development

JEL Classification: D72, H76, Q54

Suggested Citation

Baerlocher, Diogo and de Melo Caldas, Renata and Cavalcanti, Francisco and Schneider, Rodrigo, Natural disasters and voting behavior under authoritarian regimes: Evidence from the Brazilian shrimp vote (February 15, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4249006 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4249006

Diogo Baerlocher (Contact Author)

University of South Florida ( email )

Tampa, FL 33620
United States

Renata De Melo Caldas

University of South Florida ( email )

Tampa, FL 33620
United States

Francisco Cavalcanti

PUC-Rio ( email )

Rua Marques de Sao Vicente, 225/206F
Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22453
Brazil

Rodrigo Schneider

Skidmore College ( email )

815 North Broadway
Saratoga Springs, NY 12866-1632
United States

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