Anatomy of a Market Crash: A Market Microstructure Analysis of the Turkish Overnight Liquidity Crisis

Abstract

An order flow model, where the coded identity of the counterparties of every trade is known, hence providing institution level order flow, is applied to both stable and crisis periods in a large and liquid overnight repo market in an emerging market economy. Institution level order flow is much more informative than cross sectionally aggregated order flow. The informativeness of institution level order flow increases with financial instability, with considerable heterogeneity in the yield impact across institutions.

Keywords: order flow model, financial crisis, institution identity, Turkey

JEL Classification: F3, G1, D8