Decomposing the Rise of the Populist Radical Right

90 Pages Posted: 28 Oct 2022 Last revised: 13 Feb 2024

See all articles by Oren Danieli

Oren Danieli

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics

Noam Gidron

Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Political Science Department

Shinnosuke Kikuchi

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Ro'ee Levy

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics

Date Written: November 14, 2022

Abstract

Support for populist radical right parties in Europe has dramatically increased in recent years. We decompose the rise of these parties from 2005 to 2020 into four components: shifts in party positions, changes in voter attributes (opinions and demographics), changes in voter priorities, and a residual. We merge two wide datasets on party positions and voter attributes and estimate voter priorities using a probabilistic voting model. We find that shifts in party positions and changes in voter attributes do not play a major role in the recent success of populist radical right parties. Instead, the primary driver behind their electoral success lies in voters' changing priorities. Particularly, voters are less likely to decide which party to support based on parties' economic positions. Rather, voters---mainly older, nonunionized, low-educated men---increasingly prioritize nativist cultural positions. This allows populist radical right parties to tap into a preexisting reservoir of culturally conservative voters. Using the same datasets, we provide a set of reduced-form evidence supporting our results. First, while parties' positions have changed, these changes are not consistent with the main supply-side hypotheses for populist support. Second, on aggregate, voters have not adopted populist right-wing opinions. Third, voters are more likely to self-identify ideologically based on their cultural rather than their economic opinions.

Keywords: populism, decomposition, party positions, voter priorities, voting weights, radical right, salience

JEL Classification: D72; P00; H80

Suggested Citation

Danieli, Oren and Gidron, Noam and Kikuchi, Shinnosuke and Levy, Ro'ee, Decomposing the Rise of the Populist Radical Right (November 14, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4255937 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4255937

Oren Danieli (Contact Author)

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 39040
Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, 69978
Israel

Noam Gidron

Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Political Science Department ( email )

Mount Scopus
Jerusalem
Israel

Shinnosuke Kikuchi

Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( email )

50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.shinnosuke-kikuchi.com/

Ro'ee Levy

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 39040
Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, 69978
Israel

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