How Does Residential Solar Pv System Diffusion Occur in Australia?-A Logistic Growth Curve Modelling Approach

Abstract

Australia is facing the twin problems of energy depletion and environmental pollution. This crisis can be alleviated by effective promotion of solar photovoltaic (PV) system installation. The question is: how does solar PV system diffusion occur in various regions in Australia? This study introduces an innovative five-parameter logistic (5PL) curve to analyse the diffusion of solar PV technology in all postcode areas of Australia. Furthermore, it combines principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis to identify the major area types that have similar diffusion characteristics. The study identifies three main diffusion pathways and their corresponding distribution areas in Australia. The results provide a visual representation of the historical diffusion of residential PV systems in Australia. From a technology diffusion perspective, the results also show how residential solar panel diffusion occurs differently in areas at the postcode level. These findings provide insights on how to reduce regional disparities in solar panel adoption, thus facilitating renewable energy equity and justice.

Keywords: solar PV, Australia, Diffusion, Regions, Growth curve