An Integrated Techno-Economic Decision-Support Forecast Model for Sea Cage Mariculture Enterprises for Asian Seabass Production in Indian Territorial Waters

Abstract

Cage-based mariculture ventures in India are evolving from a rudimentary form to enterprise scales. However, comprehensive techno-economic dimensions for production systems or prospective candidate species are underrepresented and thus, hindering the anticipated growth of the sector. In light of India’s ambition to harness the blue economy through mariculture, we bid a spatiotemporally validated decision-support model for optimizing investment decisions and foresee the interplay of economic factors. Peer-reviewed contextual data was assessed and modelled to forecast the farming innovation's efficiency and techno-economic performance. To establish scientifically valid assumptions and projections through robust scenario simulation, a baseline has been built using in-situ and published data of Asian seabass farming in sea cages in India. Unit standards of the production systems were defined and benchmarked for metrics deployment. Capacity utilization was the critical factor for the enterprise’s success. At 31% capacity utilization, the production model achieves break-even, and furthermore, when the business model was forecasted over ten years, the enterprise demonstrated significant economic potential while all product characteristics, model specifications, and economic assumptions remained rationally consistent. Interestingly, these technology-based enterprises empirically prove profitable and accomplish a low-risk profile with current policy initiatives. Constant market price upsurges for seabass products, technical feasibility, and species adaptability remain a big pull. The research also highlighted the advantages of integrating other technological, biological and financial approaches, risk mitigation strategies, and a way forward.

Keywords: Blue Economy, Economic feasibility, Decision-support, Sensitivity Analysis