When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume

38 Pages Posted: 12 Dec 2022 Last revised: 21 Dec 2024

See all articles by Francis X. Diebold

Francis X. Diebold

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Glenn Rudebusch

Brookings Institution

Maximilian Göbel

Brain

Philippe Goulet Coulombe

Université du Québec à Montréal - Département des Sciences Économiques

Boyuan Zhang

University of Pennsylvania

Date Written: December 2022

Abstract

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting "carbon-trend" and "time-trend" projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.

Suggested Citation

Diebold, Francis X. and Rudebusch, Glenn and Göbel, Maximilian and Goulet Coulombe, Philippe and Zhang, Boyuan, When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume (December 2022). NBER Working Paper No. w30732, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4299618

Francis X. Diebold (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science
133 South 36th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
United States
215-898-1507 (Phone)
215-573-4217 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Glenn Rudebusch

Brookings Institution ( email )

1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Maximilian Göbel

Brain ( email )

Milan
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.maximiliangoebel.com

Philippe Goulet Coulombe

Université du Québec à Montréal - Département des Sciences Économiques ( email )

PB 8888 Station DownTown
Succursale Centre Ville
Montreal, Quebec H3C3P8
Canada

Boyuan Zhang

University of Pennsylvania ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

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