Time and Frequency Co-Movement between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation: Evidence from Japan

Abstract

This study examines the time-frequency causal link between economic policy uncertainty and inflation in Japan while answering the following questions: (i) is there any causal link between economic policy uncertainty and inflation in Japan? (ii) if yes, in which direction(s)? To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that conducts this nexus. To do so, this study employs the wavelet coherence causality test and focuses on the wide range period from 2003:03 to 2021:03, in which Japan was experienced the specific Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing Policies. Overall, the findings mirror that economic policy uncertainty is an essential predictor of inflation in Japan, and economic policy uncertainty leads to inflation at different periods and frequencies. The results of this study are crucial for policy decision-making, monetary authorities, and central banks, and Japan should reduce uncertainty about economic policies to curb the possible risk of inflation rises. The policymakers in Japan can control the inflation rate fluctuation if they can ensure a more reliable prediction of economic policies.

Keywords: economics policy uncertainty, inflation, Japan, wavelet coherence