State of the Civil War in the Phantom State: Integration and Fragmentation among Armed Groups in the Central African Republic Since 2005

15 Pages Posted: 27 Dec 2022

See all articles by Tomohiro Hosoi

Tomohiro Hosoi

The University of Tokyo

Hiroto Ito

University of Tokyo

Koji Oishi

Aoyama Gakuin University

Date Written: December 15, 2022

Abstract

The Central African Republic (CAR) has been in turmoil due to severe armed conflict since 2012. However, the patterns of integration and fragmentation of the rebel groups in the country are hardly known. This study constructs a new dataset based on official documents and news sources to give a comprehensive picture of integration and fragmentation among CAR rebels. We show five findings from the dataset. First, there are three main streams among rebels in CAR. Second, integrations among rebels are rare. Third, even if an integration occurs, it does not survive in most cases. Fourth, in contrast to the existing research, the Anti-Balaka is not a pure self-defence force. Finally, the creation of the Coalition des Patriotes pour le Changement (CPC) in 2020 is a noteworthy event in the recent political landscape of the CAR. Moreover, we suggest two mechanisms behind such observations. First, rebel leaders have loyalty toward political big men. The second is power-balancing of rebel leaders against the government which gained international supports. This research provides some new insights on the country to both scholars and practitioners.

Keywords: Central African Republic, civil war, integration, fragmentation, rebel, MINUSCA, Chad Basin, alluvial diagram, genealogy

Suggested Citation

Hosoi, Tomohiro and Ito, Hiroto and Oishi, Koji, State of the Civil War in the Phantom State: Integration and Fragmentation among Armed Groups in the Central African Republic Since 2005 (December 15, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4303666 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4303666

Tomohiro Hosoi (Contact Author)

The University of Tokyo ( email )

7-3-1 Hongo
Bukyo-ku
Tokyo
Japan

Hiroto Ito

University of Tokyo ( email )

7-3-1 Hongo
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo, 113-0033
Japan

Koji Oishi

Aoyama Gakuin University ( email )

4-4-25 Shibuya, Shibuya-ku
Tokyo, 150-8366
Japan

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