Incomplete Consumption Risk Sharing and Currency Risk Premiums

33 Pages Posted: 5 Aug 2003 Last revised: 23 Jun 2015

See all articles by Sergei Sarkissian

Sergei Sarkissian

McGill University; University of Edinburgh

Abstract

This article studies the impact of imperfect consumption risk sharing across countries on the formation of time-varying risk premiums in the foreign exchange market and on their cross-sectional differences. These issues are addressed within the framework of the Constantinides and Duffie (1996) model applied to a multi-country world. The paper shows that the cross-country variance of consumption growth rates is counter-cyclical and that this feature of consumption data is mildly helpful for currency pricing. While the new model does not fully account for the forward premium anomaly, it is able to generate currency risk premiums at relatively low values of risk aversion and provide certain explanatory power for cross-sectional differences in currency returns.

Keywords: Forward Premium Puzzle, Conditional Asset Pricing, Implied Pricing Kernel, Consumption Dispersion Risk, Speculative Currency Returns

JEL Classification: C5, G12, G15

Suggested Citation

Sarkissian, Sergei, Incomplete Consumption Risk Sharing and Currency Risk Premiums. Review of Financial Studies, 2003, 16(3), 983-1005, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=431821 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.431821

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University of Edinburgh

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