Vax Populi: The Social Costs of Online Vaccine Skepticism

56 Pages Posted: 3 Feb 2023 Last revised: 23 May 2023

See all articles by Matilde Giaccherini

Matilde Giaccherini

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS); CESifo

Joanna Kopinska

Sapienza University of Rome, DISSE; University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS)

Gabriele Rovigatti

Bank of Italy

Date Written: 2022

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of online vaccine skepticism on pediatric vaccine uptake and health outcomes. We propose a novel methodology that combines Natural Language Processing and an instrumental variable strategy that leverages the intransitivity of the social network’s connections. By matching the universe of Italian vaccine-related tweets for 2013-2018 with vaccine coverage and preventable hospitalizations at the municipality level, we find that a 10pp increase in anti-vaccine sentiment causes i) a 0.43pp decrease in coverage of the Measles-MumpsRubella vaccine, ii) additional 2.1 hospitalizations among vulnerable populations per 100,000 residents, and iii) an 11% increase in the relevant healthcare expenses, equivalent to 7,311 euros. Drawing on the results of a simulated model, we further show the importance of targeted interventions to counter misinformation and improve vaccine uptake.

Note:
Funding Declaration: The authors acknowledge the financial support of the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) and the computational support of ISCRA/CINECA.

Conflict of Interests: The authors Matilde Giaccherini e Joanna Kopinska declare that they have no relevant competing or material financial interests that could influence the research reported in this paper.

Keywords: social media, Twitter, vaccines, controversialness, polarization, text analysis

JEL Classification: I180, L820, Z180

Suggested Citation

Giaccherini, Matilde and Kopinska, Joanna and Rovigatti, Gabriele, Vax Populi: The Social Costs of Online Vaccine Skepticism (2022). CESifo Working Paper No. 10184, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4319029 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4319029

Matilde Giaccherini (Contact Author)

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, I-00133
Italy

CESifo ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Joanna Kopinska

Sapienza University of Rome, DISSE ( email )

Rome
Italy

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome
Italy

Gabriele Rovigatti

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

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