Retrodiction Markets

Journal of Law & Public Policy (forthcoming)

18 Pages Posted: 24 Jan 2023 Last revised: 5 Feb 2024

See all articles by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico; University of Central Florida

Date Written: January 16, 2023


A growing chorus of scholars and policy makers have decried the proliferation of false information on the Internet—fake news, conspiracy theories, and the like—while at the same time downplaying the dangers of Internet censorship. This Article proposes a simple alternative to censorship: a retrodiction market in which participants buy and sell belief contracts.

Keywords: belief contracts, conspiracy theories, fake news, false information, Internet, truth

JEL Classification: D89, K24, K19

Suggested Citation

Guerra-Pujol, F. E., Retrodiction Markets (January 16, 2023). Journal of Law & Public Policy (forthcoming), Available at SSRN: or

F. E. Guerra-Pujol (Contact Author)

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico ( email )

University of Central Florida ( email )

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