Advances in Power-to-Gas Technologies: Cost and Conversion Efficiency

Abstract

Widespread adoption of hydrogen as an energy carrier is widely believed to require continued advances in Power-to-Gas (PtG) technologies. Here we provide a comprehensive assessment of the dynamics of system prices and conversion efficiency for three currently prevalent PtG technologies: alkaline, polymer electrolyte membrane, and solid oxide cell electrolysis. We analyze global data points for system prices, energy consumption, and the cumulative installed capacity for each technology. Our regression results establish that, over the past two decades, every doubling of cumulative installed capacity resulted in system prices coming down by 14-17%, while the energy required for electrolysis was reduced by 2%. Incorporating multiple forecasts of future deployment growth, our calculations project that, in the coming decade, all three technologies will become substantially more economical than previously thought. Specifically, the life-cycle cost of electrolytic hydrogen production is projected to get close to the $1.0/kg cost target set by the U.S. Department of Energy for the year 2030.

Keywords: learning-by-doing, hydrogen, electrolysis, power-to-gas, Energy storage

JEL Classification: M1, O33, Q41, Q42, Q48, Q54, Q55