The International Price Transmission in Stock Index Futures Markets
37 Pages Posted: 13 Sep 2003
This study explores dynamic price relationships among nine major stock index futures markets, combining an error correction model with directed acyclic graph (DAG) analysis. DAG-based innovation accounting results show that the Japanese market is isolated from other major stock index futures markets. The U.S. and the UK appear to share leadership roles in stock index futures markets. The UK and German markets rather than the US exert significant influences on most European markets, which indicates a pattern of regional integration in Europe. Innovation accounting results based on widely used Choleski decomposition are found to be seriously misleading.
Keywords: Stock index futures, Error correction model, Impulse response analysis, Forecast error variance decomposition, Directed acyclic graphs
JEL Classification: G15, C32
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