Wastewater-Based Surveillance Can Be Used to Model COVID-19-Associated Workforce Absenteeism

Abstract

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) is a powerful tool for understanding community COVID-19 disease burden and informing public health policy. The potential of WBS for understanding COVID-19’s impact in non-healthcare settings has not been explored to the same degree. Here we examined how SARS-CoV-2 measured from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) correlates with local workforce absenteeism. SARS-CoV-2 RNA N1 and N2 were quantified three times per week by RT-qPCR in samples collected at three WWTPs servicing Calgary and surrounding areas, Canada (1.3 million residents) between June 2020 and March 2022. Wastewater trends were compared to workforce absenteeism using data from the largest employer in the city (>15,000 staff). Absences were classified as being COVID-19-related, COVID-19-confirmed, and unrelated to COVID-19. Poisson regression was performed to generate a prediction model for COVID-19 absenteeism based on wastewater data. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 95.5% (85/89) of weeks assessed. During this period 6592 COVID-19-related absences (1896 confirmed) and 4,524 unrelated absences COVID-19 cases were recorded. Employee absences significantly increased as wastewater signal increased through the pandemic’s waves. Strong correlations between COVID-19-confirmed absences and wastewater SARS-CoV-2 signals (N1 gene: r=0.824, p<0.0001 and N2 gene: r=0.826, p<0.0001) were observed. Linear regression with adjusted R2-value demonstrated a robust association (adjusted R2=0.783), when adjusted by 7 days, indicating wastewater provides a one-week leading signal. A generalized linear regression using a Poisson distribution was performed to predict COVID-19-confirmed absences out of the total number of absent employees using wastewater data as a leading indicator (P<0.0001). We also assessed the variation of predictions when the regression model was applied to new data, with the predicted values and corresponding confidence intervals closely tracking actual absenteeism data. Wastewater-based surveillance has the potential to be used by employers to anticipate workforce requirements and optimize human resource allocation in response to trackable respiratory illnesses like COVID-19.

Note:
Funding Information: This work was supported by grants from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research [448242 to M.D.P.]; and from Alberta Health [M.D.P., K.F., C.R.J.H., X.P., B.L. and S.E.H.].

Declaration of Interests: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Ethics Approval Statement: This project was approved by the Conjoint Regional Health Ethics Board (REB20-1252).

Keywords: Epidemiology, sewage, SARS-CoV-2, staffing, labour scheduling, prediction