An Agent-Based Model of Cultural Change for a Low-Carbon Transition

28 Pages Posted: 1 Feb 2023 Last revised: 13 Apr 2023

See all articles by Daniel Torren-Peraire

Daniel Torren-Peraire

Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona

Ivan Savin

ESCP Business School, Madrid campus; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Ural Federal University

Jeroen van den Bergh

Autonomous University of Barcelona

Date Written: January 31, 2023

Abstract

Meeting climate goals requires radical changes in the consumption behaviours of individuals. This necessitates an understanding of how the diffusion of low-carbon behaviours will occur. The speed and inter-dependency of these changes in behavioural choices may be modulated by individuals’ culture. We develop an agent-based model to study how behavioural decarbonisation interacts with longer-term cultural change, composed of individuals with multiple behaviours that evolve due to imperfect social learning in a social network. Using the definition of culture as socially transmitted information, we represent individuals’ environmental identity as an aggregation of attitudes towards multiple relevant behaviours. The strength of interaction between individuals is determined by the similarity in their environmental identity, leading to inter-behavioural dependency and spillovers in green attitudes. Our results show that the initial distribution of agent attitudes towards behaviours and asymmetries in social learning, such as confirmation bias, are the main drivers of model dynamics, helping to generate awareness of what roadblocks may appear to deep decarbonisation. To assess the impact of culture beyond a purely diffusive regime, we introduce green influencers as a minority of individuals who broadcast a green attitude. The greatest emissions reduction is achieved with the inclusion of culture, relative to a behavioural independence case, and with low confirmation bias. However, green influencers fail to achieve deep behavioural decarbonisation through solely voluntary action. We identify areas for further research regarding how culture, through inter-behavioural dependence, may be leveraged for climate policy.

Keywords: cultural evolution, opinion dynamics, social networks, environmental identity, behavioural diffusion,green influencers

Suggested Citation

Torren-Peraire, Daniel and Savin, Ivan and van den Bergh, Jeroen, An Agent-Based Model of Cultural Change for a Low-Carbon Transition (January 31, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4344035 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4344035

Daniel Torren-Peraire (Contact Author)

Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona ( email )

Ivan Savin

ESCP Business School, Madrid campus ( email )

C. de Arroyofresno, 1
Madrid, 28035
Spain

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Barcelona, Barcelona 08193
Spain

Ural Federal University ( email )

Yekaterinburg
Russia

Jeroen Van den Bergh

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

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