Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States

36 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2023

See all articles by Alina Carare

Alina Carare

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Catherine Koh

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Yorbol Yakhshilikov

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Abstract

Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times. The paper investigates what factors could explain this fact, by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019. Economic labor market conditions (real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S.) play a major role in explaining undocumented migration. Less explored drivers of undocumented migration tied to living conditions at home also explain well undocumented migration (natural disasters, coffee production, higher temperatures, and homicide rates). Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent, and perceptions regarding changes of these measures could also drive up undocumented migration at times. Policies that address the root causes of migration at home, including with the U.S. help, are essential in reducing the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.

Keywords: International migration, undocumented migration, U.S. Department of Agriculture, investment decision theory, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, NT country, Migration, Real wages, Income, Unemployment rate, Natural disasters, Caribbean, Western Hemisphere, Global

JEL Classification: F22, J11, J61, J30, E25, J64, Q54

Suggested Citation

Carare, Alina and Koh, Catherine and Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States. IMF Working Paper No. 2023/017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4351450 or http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9798400231872.001

Alina Carare (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Catherine Koh

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Yorbol Yakhshilikov

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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