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Understanding Geographical Seasonality of COVID-19
25 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2023
More...Abstract
Background: Occurrence of cases of COVID-19 disease suggests that it will likely become seasonally endemic in the human populations. However, the seasonality of occurrence and severity of COVID-19 cases in human population is not yet quantified.
Methods: Here, using global data, we show that the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of COVID-19 cases is a function of distinct seasons and climates. We investigated this at a county and country scale using comparison of seasonal means, correlation analyses using ambient air temperatures and dew point temperatures, and multiple linear regression.
Findings: We found that most of the locations had the highest incidence of COVID-19 during the winter compared to the other seasons. It was also found that warmer climate regions had higher incidence of COVID-19 during the summer than colder climate regions, and the climates with mild seasons, especially around the equator, had smaller differences between seasonal COVID-19 incidence. Correlation and regression analyses showed that ambient air and dew point temperatures had were significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence.
Interpretation: Our results suggest that temperature and the environment are influential factors to understand the transmission of COVID-19 within the human population. This research provides empirical evidence that COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in a predictable seasonal pattern based on when temperatures rise and fall outside of a certain threshold, and as such it will aid in planning for future outbreaks and for mitigating their impacts.
Funding: None.
Declaration of Interests: We declare no competing interests.
Keywords: COVID-19, Seasonality, Temperature
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation