Assessing Climate Ambition Enhancement in ASEAN Countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions
24 Pages Posted: 14 Feb 2023
Abstract
With its rapidly growing population and economy, ASEAN’s medium-term climate ambition is crucial to global mitigation efforts. All ASEAN Member States (AMS) have communicated their medium-term ambitions through updated NDCs submitted in 2020-2021, but the region’s emissions trajectory is still not in line with a 2-degree scenario. However, assessing and comparing ASEAN NDCs is a complex task given the varying types of mitigation targets and actions chosen by each country. In this article, we apply an assessment framework to examine to what extent AMS have raised mitigation ambition, and in what forms. By identifying similarities and differences in each country’s approach to ambition enhancement, we place them in three groups, each with different needs and recommendations for the planning of successive NDCs; thus clarifying the varying stages of progress in climate ambition among AMS and provide a regionally coherent view of where ASEAN stands in its contribution to global ambition. AMS raised overall ambition through new or strengthened mitigation policies and actions; and expanded coverage of greenhouse gases and sectors, but enhancements in economy-wide greenhouse gas targets were mostly limited. Less developed countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar) made the most enhancements in ambition with greater detail on international support needs but concerns on feasibility and implementation remain. Emerging economies and wealthier countries (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam) marginally strengthened their targets and actions and progressed on implementing existing targets, but economy-wide ambition gaps remain. Philippines, Thailand appear to have barely enhanced ambition, but this may be due to the lack of detail provided in their NDCs. Since they communicated their need for international support, they may consider adding clearer targets, policies and needs in successive NDCs.
Keywords: Climate Policy, Southeast Asia, ASEAN, Nationally Determined Contributions, Climate governance, Climate ambition
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