Asymmetric Effect of the Oil Price in the Ecuadorian Economy

27 Pages Posted: 18 Feb 2023

See all articles by Alan Bunce

Alan Bunce

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Paul Carrillo-Maldonado

Universidad de las Américas (UDLA); Ecuadorian Political Economy Lab (EPEL)


This paper aims to identify whether there is an asymmetric response of the output to positive and negative changes in the price of oil. We take the case of Ecuador, an oil exporter but also an importer of derivates of the same commodity. We implement the local projections methodology to estimate this asymmetric response through state-dependence impulse response function. The results evidence that the negative variations of oil prices affect the Ecuadorian GDP more than when this commodity is rising. Also, we show that the persistence of the effect is higher when the oil price fall than there are positive variations.

Keywords: Asymmetry, Oil Price, local projections, Growth, Ecuador

Suggested Citation

Bunce, Alan and Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul, Asymmetric Effect of the Oil Price in the Ecuadorian Economy. Available at SSRN: or

Alan Bunce

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Paul Carrillo-Maldonado (Contact Author)

Universidad de las Américas (UDLA) ( email )

de los colimes, Av. De los Granados
Quito, Pichincha 170137

HOME PAGE: http://

Ecuadorian Political Economy Lab (EPEL) ( email )

Quito, Pichincha


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