Long-Term Effects of Rainfall Shocks on Foundational Cognitive Skills: Evidence from Peru

30 Pages Posted: 1 Mar 2023

See all articles by Nicolás Pazos Navarro

Nicolás Pazos Navarro

University of Nottingham

Marta Favara

University of Oxford - Department of International Development

Alan Sánchez

Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)

Douglas Scott

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jere Behrman

University of Pennsylvania

Abstract

Global warming is changing precipitation patterns, harming communities strongly tied to agricultural production, particularly in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). Whilst the long-term effects of being exposed to rainfall shocks early in life on school achievement tests are well-established, there is little population-based evidence from LMICs on the mechanisms through which these shocks operate. This paper analyses the effects of early exposure to rainfall shocks on four foundational cognitive skills (FCSs), including executive functions (EF) that have been found to be key predictors of educational success. These skills were measured via a series of tablet-based tasks administered in Peru as part of the Young Lives longitudinal study (YLS). We combine the YLS data with gridded data on monthly precipitation to generate monthly, community-level rainfall estimates. The key identification strategy relies on temporary climatic shocks being uncorrelated with other latent determinants of FCS development. Our results show significant negative effects of early life exposure to rainfall shocks on EF. We also find evidence of rainfall shocks decreasing households’ abilities to invest in human capital, which may affect both FCS and domain-specific test scores. Interestingly, social policies providing affected households with additional resources partially offset the effects of the rainfall shocks.

Keywords: Skills formationHuman capitalRainfallPeruEarly childhood

Suggested Citation

Pazos Navarro, Nicolás and Favara, Marta and Sánchez, Alan and Scott, Douglas and Behrman, Jere, Long-Term Effects of Rainfall Shocks on Foundational Cognitive Skills: Evidence from Peru. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4374532 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4374532

Nicolás Pazos Navarro (Contact Author)

University of Nottingham ( email )

University Park
Nottingham, NG8 1BB
United Kingdom

Marta Favara

University of Oxford - Department of International Development ( email )

United Kingdom

Alan Sánchez

Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE) ( email )

Av. Almirante Grau #915
Lima 4
Peru

Douglas Scott

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Jere Behrman

University of Pennsylvania ( email )

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