Policy Scenarios for Promoting the Circularity of Plastics

Abstract

The widespread use of plastics and inadequate end-of-life waste management has led to persistent plastic pollution with adverse impacts on marine wildlife, livelihoods and potentially human health. Consequently, the plastic pollution problem has gained importance in the international agenda. Yet, there is a lack of understanding of the socio-economic consequences of plastic policies in the coming decades. This paper presents a novel analysis of policies to address plastic pollution in a computable general equilibrium model, which provides the link between economic activity and plastics use and waste. The paper presents two policy scenarios: (i) one reflecting the different circumstances and challenges of countries – Regional Action, and (ii) one more ambitious scenario reflecting co-ordinated effort at global level – Global Action. Compared to a Baseline scenario in which plastics use and waste would triple and mismanaged waste (the main source of plastic pollution) almost doubles by 2060, the policy scenarios reduce plastic throughout its lifecycle. While Regional Action can decrease mismanaged waste by over 60%, Global Action can almost eliminate all mismanaged waste by 2060. The costs of both policy packages are limited.

Keywords: D58, O41, Q53, Q58