The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Synthetic Control Study of (Lost) Entrepreneurship

26 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2023

See all articles by David B. Audretsch

David B. Audretsch

Indiana University Bloomington - School of Public & Environmental Affairs (SPEA)

Paul P. Momtaz

Technische Universität München (TUM) - TUM School of Management; University College London Center for Blockchain Technologies; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Hanna Motuzenko

Goethe University Frankfurt - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Silvio Vismara

University of Bergamo

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 5, 2023

Abstract

This synthetic control study quantifies the economic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war in terms of foregone entrepreneurial activity in both countries since the invasion of Crimea in 2014. Relative to its synthetic counterfactual, Ukraine’s number of self-employed dropped by 675,000, corresponding to a relative loss of 20%. The number of Ukrainian SMEs temporarily dropped by 71,000 (14%) and recovered within five years of the conflict. In contrast, Russia had lost more than 1.4 million SMEs (42%) five years into the conflict. The disappearance of Russian SMEs is driven by both fewer new businesses created and more existing business closures.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, war, Russia-Ukraine conflict

JEL Classification: D74, L26, N44, O17

Suggested Citation

Audretsch, David B. and Momtaz, Paul P. and Motuzenko, Hanna and Vismara, Silvio, The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Synthetic Control Study of (Lost) Entrepreneurship (March 5, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4378827 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4378827

David B. Audretsch

Indiana University Bloomington - School of Public & Environmental Affairs (SPEA) ( email )

1315 East Tenth Street
Bloomington, IN 47405
United States

Paul P. Momtaz (Contact Author)

Technische Universität München (TUM) - TUM School of Management ( email )

Arcisstr. 21
Munich, 80333
Germany

University College London Center for Blockchain Technologies ( email )

UCL CBT UCL Computer Science
Malet Place London WC
London, London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Hanna Motuzenko

Goethe University Frankfurt - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Silvio Vismara

University of Bergamo ( email )

Via dei Caniana
2
Bergamo, 24127
Italy
24127 (Fax)

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