The Ex Ante Real Rate and Inflation Premium Under a Habit Consumption Model

Abstract

This paper analyzes and quantifies ex ante components of bond yields - real rate of returns and risk premia - from observed prices of nominal and indexed bonds in the United Kingdom from 1983 to 2000. The estimation uses an asset pricing framework based on a habit consumption model together with a joint formulation of consumption growth and inflation. Nominal yields carry a time-varying inflation premium that is significant throughout the period, increasing in the bond's maturity and contributing up to 25 basis points to yearly nominal yields. The analysis allows the extraction of the ex ante real rate from indexed bonds by properly taking into account both the incomplete indexation on these instruments and the inflation premium embedded in the nominal bonds.

JEL Classification: E21, E27, E31, E43, G12