International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing-Power Parity in the Long Run

42 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 1996  

Alan M. Taylor

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics; University of Virginia - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: September 1996

Abstract

This paper investigates purchasing-power parity (PPP) since the late nineteenth century for a sample of twenty countries, a broader sample of pooled annual data than has been studied before. Econometric results for time-series and panel samples allows us to test the robustness of the PPP hypothesis in different eras: the gold-standard, interwar, Bretton Woods, and the recent float. The evidence for PPP is mixed: Strong PPP, entailing stationarity of the real exchange rate, is not broadly supported, and real-exchange-rate dispersion shows counterintuitive historical patterns. However, not-much-weaker forms of PPP can be supported, with evidence of cointegration between different countries' common-currency price levels. Residual variances here confirm the conventional wisdom that the interwar period, particularly the Great Depression, represented the nadir of international capital market integration in the modern era.

Suggested Citation

Taylor, Alan M., International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing-Power Parity in the Long Run (September 1996). NBER Working Paper No. w5742. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4386

Alan M. Taylor (Contact Author)

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