Are Traffic Studies 'Junk Science' That Don’t Belong in Court?

Abstract

Jurisdictions rely heavily on Traffic Impact Analyses (TIA) to predict the traffic impacts of projects and calibrate appropriate mitigations. But TIAs are also litigation tools – jurisdictions use them to satisfy courts that their land use decisions are supported by substantial evidence, or evidence that is credible and reliable. The problem, as we discuss in this paper, is that TIAs are not consistently credible and reliable. We explore some common criticisms—and a brief overview of a growing literature—regarding underlying vehicle estimation methods in practice, which demonstrates the ways in which TIAs are widely flawed. Historically, courts have not expected much from TIAs, but our analysis points towards a tipping point in which courts may begin to question whether conventional TIA methods constitute substantial evidence, suggesting an important need to innovate and adopt new data and methods in practice.

Keywords: traffic impacts, new development, traffic impact analyses (TIAs), trip generation, courts, judicial review, substantial evidence