How Accurate Are Survey Forecasts on the Market?

22 Pages Posted: 29 Mar 2023

See all articles by Songrun He

Songrun He

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School

Jiaen Li

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School

Guofu Zhou

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School

Date Written: March 15, 2023

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a novel performance analysis of three widely used survey forecasts, by investigating how well they predict the stock market. Judging by their out-of-sample R2s, a standard measure in the market predictability literature, we find that none of the survey forecasts outperforms a simple random walk forecast!, which predicts the future returns simply by their past sample mean. Our study raises important questions on how to well-guard the use of the survey forecasts and how to properly interpret the results from the large literature that rely on the survey forecasts. On the other hand, we find that the stock market short interest, which are profit-oriented and are backed with money, performs well in predicting the market, beating the random walk significantly. Our study suggests that the short interest is by far a much better measure of investor subjective beliefs than any other measures used today.

Keywords: Subjective belief, Forecast, Short interest

JEL Classification: G11, G17

Suggested Citation

He, Songrun and Li, Jiaen and Zhou, Guofu, How Accurate Are Survey Forecasts on the Market? (March 15, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4390165 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4390165

Songrun He

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1133
St. Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States

Jiaen Li

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63130-4899
United States

Guofu Zhou (Contact Author)

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School ( email )

Washington University
Campus Box 1133
St. Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States
314-935-6384 (Phone)
314-658-6359 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/zhou/

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