Lessons for Direct Air Capture from the History of Nitrogen Synthesis: High Rates of Deployment are Possible, with Strong Support

Abstract

Several companies are now actively developing direct air capture (DAC) technology to sequester carbon from the atmosphere using chemical techniques. Currently, this technology is an experimental niche-innovation. Upscaling it to remove gigatons of carbon by mid-century will require a historic effort. We assess the prospects for rapid future deployment of solid direct air capture using ammonia synthesis as a historical analogue. Ammonia synthesis is also an energy-intensive chemical technology for processing atmospheric gases. It was deployed very rapidly after its introduction, buoyed by emergency wartime expansion efforts, national autarky programs, and the Green Revolution. If DAC experiences the same rate of expansion, it will reach close to gigaton scale by 2050. However, research and development efforts on DAC thus far have been slower than comparable efforts for nitrogen synthesis. For DAC to benefit from these kinds of dynamics, political and economic incentive structures will have to change dramatically.

Keywords: Direct air capture, Carbon dioxide removal, Nitrogen synthesis, History, Upscaling