China’s Air Power and the Beyond Visual Range Revolution in Fighter Combat

Abstract

Can China challenge the U.S. for air superiority? How is China's ability to do so affected by technological advances in fighter aircraft? As part of the “Revolution in Military Affairs,” air-to-air engagements evolved from within-visual-range (WVR) contests in speed and maneuverability to beyond-visual-range (BVR) contests in stealth and detection. This development has made air superiority contests more one-sided and deadly. Existing assessments of China’s air power utilize pre-BVR historical data and assume within-generation aircraft capabilities are identical. These assessments understate the impact of the United States’ technological edge in air superiority contests. I demonstrate the impact of the technological edge using an original model simulating air-to-air engagements and a campaign analysis of an air superiority contest over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. The results demonstrate the challenges for PLAAF power projection beyond the range of friendly air defenses, reveal strong incentives to escalate in a crisis, and illustrate the benefits of maintaining advantages in radar and stealth technologies.

Keywords: China, air superiority, international security, campaign analysis, radar, and stealth.