Repurposing, Co-Processing and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation - the Refining Sector Under Deep Decarbonization Scenarios: A Case Study for Brazil Using Integrated Assessment Modeling

32 Pages Posted: 27 Mar 2023

See all articles by Clarissa Bergman-Fonte

Clarissa Bergman-Fonte

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Gabriela Silva

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Mariana Império

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Rebecca Draeger

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Letícia Coutinho

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Bruno Cunha

Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Pedro R.R. Rochedo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Alexandre Szklo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Roberto Schaeffer

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Abstract

Deep decarbonization scenarios show that fossil oil use is expected to decline in the coming decades, meaning that oil refineries must adapt. This work evaluates the refining sector in deep decarbonization pathways using Brazil as a case study. BLUES – a national Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) – is employed to investigate the evolution of the sector in mitigation scenarios. The production of feedstocks for the petrochemical industry, of fuels for the aviation and maritime sectors, and biomass co-processing are analyzed since those strategies may bring resilience to the refining sector. In addition, the potential for avoiding emissions in refineries’ operations is also explored. BLUES results for the country as a whole are used as the starting point for a detailed analysis of the Brazilian refining industry. Results show that the employment of refineries’ assets for purposes aligned with decarbonization targets, along with CO2 emissions mitigation in the sector, reduces risks of carbon lock-in and of asset stranding. To our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates not only emissions’ mitigation in the refining sector, but also uses an IAM to investigate oil refining repurposing and co-processing options in the context of decarbonization.

Keywords: refining, fossil fuels, integrated assessment models, decarbonization scenarios, climate change mitigation.

Suggested Citation

Bergman-Fonte, Clarissa and Silva, Gabriela and Império, Mariana and Draeger, Rebecca and Coutinho, Letícia and Cunha, Bruno and Rochedo, Pedro R.R. and Szklo, Alexandre and Schaeffer, Roberto, Repurposing, Co-Processing and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation - the Refining Sector Under Deep Decarbonization Scenarios: A Case Study for Brazil Using Integrated Assessment Modeling. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4400842 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4400842

Clarissa Bergman-Fonte (Contact Author)

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Gabriela Silva

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Mariana Império

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Rebecca Draeger

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Letícia Coutinho

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Bruno Cunha

Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Av; Pasteur, 250
terreo - Bairro Maracana
Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 23890000
Brazil

Pedro R.R. Rochedo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Alexandre Szklo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Roberto Schaeffer

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Brazil

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