Accountability for CO2 Climate Crisis by Carbon Majors’ Emissions in Oil and Gas Production?

Abstract

PURPOSE:
The purpose of this paper is to report upon some preliminary research thinking with tentative early empirical intriguing findings to stimulate insights that address the urgent issue (gap) of accountability for CO2 indicators in climate crisis. Its novel context is the global oil and gas supermajors, beyond the scarcity of pioneering fossil companies sector research, for managing the energy transition by decarbonisation. The specific purpose (aim) of this research is to shed light on the question: why CO2 score management affects climate change accountability in carbon majors’ oil and gas production? To what extent is the climate change indicator CO2 ppm related to CO2 emissions (KPI) in oil and gas production (2011-2020)?

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH:
This research creates and evaluates a simplified proxy CO2 indicator metric for CO2 emissions related to atmospheric CO2 ppm (to act as a KPI metric for the oil and gas sector). It builds upon a foundation of established consensus guidelines in scientific research from IPCC, EPA, NASA NOAA, UNFCCC, CDIAC, and UNEP. The novel representative sample is all of the influential 7 supermajors in the oil gas energy sector that are privately investor owned. It uses a paradigm of positivism, quantitative, deductive methodology for a novel time varying period, 2011- 2020. The approach extends pioneering research for the highest CO2 emitters (1880-2010; 1980-2010). The research analyses (2011-2020) are statistically tested using the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) for relationships of the fixed effect CO2 variables (oil and gas emissions MtCO2e and CO2 ppm atmosphere). Then regression (r2) assesses size of factor contributions for atmospheric CO2.

FINDINGS:
Analyses support the primary hypothesis H1: there is a high positive correlation 0.634 (p<0.05) for a significant strong relationship in long-term trends between MtCO2e emissions and CO2 ppm indicators, drivers for climate change (2011-2020). The secondary hypothesis H2 is supported: the private investor group of 7 carbon supermajors for oil and gas production MTCO2e makes a sufficiently large enough factor contribution of over 40% to increased atmospheric CO2 ppm that impacts on drivers for climate change (2011-2020). The imperative cumulative contribution to increased CO2 ppm (% and amount) reaching the atmosphere (after sink absorption) from GtCO2 is calculated using the proxy CO2 metric for the supermajors oil and gas (energy) sector in the decade (2011-2020) as 7.25% and 30.19 GtCO2 ppm. This is then extrapolated for the whole oil and gas sector worldwide 2020 as 37.6% with approximately a massive 156.95 GtCO2 ppm added to the atmosphere this decade by the oil and gas (sector) energy alone without coal/cement (key fossil fuels)..

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS:
The oil and gas industry has a significant urgent role in managing levels of CO2 in the energy transition to net zero. This research is in response to concerns of under-estimates for CO2 by the oil and gas industry and for simplifying universal CO2e score management with a metric, specifically for oil gas sector and accountability. This research timeframe (2011-2020) extends IPCC evidence from 1971–2010 data sets, where high confidence exists for a significant correlation between fossil fuels (including oil and gas) production of MtCO2e and atmospheric CO2 ppm.

ORIGINALITY:
It adds originality value to research into the accountability for atmospheric CO2 ppm and MtCO2e emissions as critical climate change indicators, drivers of the Green Economy, to evaluate relationships and long-term trends for the novel decade 2011-2020 for MtCO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 ppm - context of oil gas production. This paper argues the value of creating a universal proxy CO2 indicator metric for both academic research and for a dashboard display alongside economic (earnings revenue) financial reporting for the critical wealthiest oil gas energy sector. Where accuracy (as opposed to current CO2e under-estimates) in signalling to audiences could ultimately facilitate more informed decisions for policy making. Ultimately, this vitally important study is contributing not only towards the challenge for the stabilisation of CO2, but the immense financial stability of the global energy economics and macroeconomics during the energy transition to net zero.

Keywords: Oil and gas, accountability, CO2, climate change, score management, calculation, GHG

JEL Classification: G00, F64, Q43, Q53, Q54, Q56