Optimal Transitions Toward Carbon Neutrality in Chinese Power Sector: Considering Regional  Heterogeneity and Technological Change

Abstract

Carbon emission reduction, cost-affordability and supply-reliability are all important for the transition to a carbon-neutral power system in China. This study searches for optimal transitions toward carbon neutrality in the power sector with a high spatial resolution model, coordinating deployments of power generation, transmission, and storage. It analyzes the impacts of regional heterogeneity, technological change, and low-carbon policies on the optimal transitions. The results show that renewable energy generation technologies, especially photovoltaic, might dominate the market in the latter planning period. With technological change and low-carbon policies, offshore wind and nuclear might replace fossil energy in coastal regions. Future electricity consumption would be dominated by local absorption and guaranteed by long-distance transmission. Storage capacity would be necessary to balance intermittent output with high penetration of renewable energy. This study also provides several policy implications related to improvement of grid flexibility, reprogramming of electricity transmissions, coordinated deployments of energy storage technologies, and implementation of low-carbon policies.

Keywords: Carbon neutrality, Power system, Integrated planning, Regional heterogeneity, Technological change