Dry Times in Africa

CREDIT Research Paper No. 03/07

48 Pages Posted: 29 Sep 2003

See all articles by Salvador Barrios

Salvador Barrios

European Commission, JRC - IPTS

Luisito Bertinelli

Universite du Luxembourg

Eric Strobl

Ecole Polytechnique, Paris - Department of Economic Sciences; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: June 2003

Abstract

While there have been some references in the literature to the potential role of the general decline in rainfall in sub-Saharan African nations on their poor growth performance relative to other developing countries, this avenue remains empirically unexplored. In this paper we use a new cross-country panel climatic data set in an economic growth framework to explore the issue. Our results show that rainfall has been a significant determinant of poor economic growth for Africa, but not for other developing countries. Depending on the benchmark measure of potential rainfall, we estimate that the direct impact under the scenario of no decline in rainfall would have resulted in a reduction of between 13 and 36 per cent of today's gap in African GDP per capita relative to rest of the developing world.

Suggested Citation

Barrios, Salvador and Bertinelli, Luisito and Strobl, Eric, Dry Times in Africa (June 2003). CREDIT Research Paper No. 03/07, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=440802 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.440802

Salvador Barrios (Contact Author)

European Commission, JRC - IPTS ( email )

Edificio Expo
C/ Inca Garcilaso s/n
Seville, 41092
Spain
34 954 48 82 08 (Phone)
34 954 48 82 08 (Fax)

Luisito Bertinelli

Universite du Luxembourg ( email )

L-1511 Luxembourg
Luxembourg

Eric Strobl

Ecole Polytechnique, Paris - Department of Economic Sciences ( email )

Ecole Polytechnique
Department of Economics
Paris, 75005
France

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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