A New Extreme Weather Nowcasting Product Supporting Aviation Management at Local Scale

51 Pages Posted: 3 Apr 2023

See all articles by Sandy Chkeir

Sandy Chkeir

University of Padua

Aikaterini Anesiadou

University of Padua

Alejandro Cervantes

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Alvaro Reviriego

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Manuel Soler

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Riccardo Biondi

University of Padua

Abstract

Extreme weather is responsible for major delays of air traffic flow management. Due to the climate changes, the storms track and intensity will also change in Europe, increasing the horizontal flight inefficiency by about 4%. In this context, an accurate short-term forecasting of extreme weather at airport spatial scale will be very useful for the aviation mangers and controllers. This work is part of the H2020 SESAR ALARM project partially devoted to nowcast extreme weather events in the area of Milano Malpensa airport. We used ground-based weather sensors, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, a C-band radar and lightning detectors distributed around Malpensa to develop a machine learning model able to nowcast the rain rate, the wind speed and the lightning occurrences. The model performances strongly depend on the dataset length, data type, data temporal resolution, data spatial resolution, and frequency of the extreme events. The wind speed nowcasting is really accurate and can be re-used in different locations. The rain rate nowcasting is largely affected by the data availability and it must be customized to the specific location. The lightning nowcasting is affected by a large false alarm rate when the event already finished. We provide here a mockup product in polygon format which could be useful in future to the aviation managers to adjust and optimize the flight trajectories in case of extreme events occurrences.

Keywords: Nowcasting, Machine learning, aviation, Extreme Weather, lightning

Suggested Citation

Chkeir, Sandy and Anesiadou, Aikaterini and Cervantes, Alejandro and Reviriego, Alvaro and Soler, Manuel and Biondi, Riccardo, A New Extreme Weather Nowcasting Product Supporting Aviation Management at Local Scale. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4408315 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4408315

Sandy Chkeir

University of Padua ( email )

Via 8 Febbraio
Padova, 2-35122
Italy

Aikaterini Anesiadou

University of Padua ( email )

Via 8 Febbraio
Padova, 2-35122
Italy

Alejandro Cervantes

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Alvaro Reviriego

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Manuel Soler

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Riccardo Biondi (Contact Author)

University of Padua ( email )

Via 8 Febbraio
Padova, 2-35122
Italy

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
69
Abstract Views
244
Rank
612,239
PlumX Metrics