Detecting and Date-Stamping Bubbles in Fan Tokens

Abstract

We focus on the existence of bubbles in fan tokens, utilizing the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) tests. We use daily closing prices of the top 20 fan tokens according to their market capitalization, along with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chiliz. The evidence from the GSADF test results indicates that the prices of 13 out of 20 fan tokens, and the three main cryptocurrencies, have explosive periods associated with bubbles. Our results also show that the percentage of bubble days is between 0% and 5% for all fan tokens. Among the 13 fan tokens exhibiting bubble behavior in their prices, nine have multiple subperiods associated with bubbles while only four tokens have a single subperiod with explosive prices. Bubbles in token prices are short-lived bubbles, most last for few days.

Keywords: Fan Token, Price Bubbles, Bitcoin, SADF, GSADF